NHL Trade Rumours

Loudmouths

Ever since Kevin Lowe started the whole offer sheet trend, we’ve seen a couple of GMs stating that they would like to re-sign their key RFAs before July 1st in order to avoid matching potential offer sheets. Dean Lombardi apparently got a little antsy and had this to say:

“We’re not only going to match any offer sheet, we’ll have enough space to go after your guys. Go ahead and make our day. If you sign our guy, we’re coming back with both barrels firing. You’d better be damn straight that you have the cap space and all your guys are signed.”

Lombardi, of course, was referring to youngsters Anze Kopitar and Jack Johnson, both of whom will be RFAs next summer. Now I don’t know why Lombardi is getting so worked up about brandishing his own vigilante justice, but you have to admit, it’s a pretty dumb move on his part. It goes without question that Lombardi will do his best to re-sign the two budding superstars to long-term contracts before the summer. Even if he doesn’t manage to get them signed, he will no doubt match any offer sheet - that is also obvious, as the future of the Kings organization rests on the shoulders of Kopitar and Johnson. The point of the offer sheet is to sign players based on potential, and make it just ludicrous enough that your rival GM won’t match. There’s no point in making an offer sheet that has reasonable numbers and terms, because it saves your rival GM negotiating pains with money-hungry player agents and it helps them protect their assets at a reasonable price. I thought Mike Gillis‘ offer sheet to David Backes was a waste of time because it was a no-brainer that Larry Pleau would match.

Now, let’s theoretically play this out. Say I was Edmonton. By the summer of 2009, I’ll only have 9 regular forwards and 4 defensemen under contract. I decide that I want to make Kopitar an offer sheet because I’m lacking a marquee first-line centre. With my remaining cap space, I offer Kopitar $60m over 7 years. True to his word, Lombardi matches, to no one’s surprise, and starts his vigilante mission. Of the RFAs, I’ve got some of intrigue, including Gilbert Brule, Kyle Brodziak, Rob Schremp, Tyler Spurgeon, Denis Grebreshkov, and Ladislav Smid, plenty of quality youngsters to pick from. Lombardi thinks he should beef up his lineup, and decides to make offer sheets to Smid, Brule, and Brodziak. I see this coming, because I vaguely remember something about Lombardi’s “both barrels firing” promise. I stand prepared to have offer sheets thrown my way. For Lombardi, he has to make offer sheets that I cannot match. He has to offer terms and money that I cannot accept because I think they’re ridiculous. To that, I say, sure, sign these guys and saddle yourself with bad contracts. Meanwhile, I’ll go look for better options, because let’s face it, if Brule, Brodziak, and Smid were so valuable to me, I would’ve signed them already. If not, I can just as easily replace them. So, looking at it that way, I think Lombardi’s just stating the obvious and blowing smoke. He has other things he should be worrying about, like getting to the cap floor and wondering how to win the John Tavares sweepstakes.

The league’s biggest loudmouth, Sean Avery, also had some choice words to say in his press conference:

“This is certainly a team that I’m coming to that is a better team than the team I formerly played on…watching the series against Detroit… I think if I was thrown in there I’d make a difference.

Avery is of course, referring to the Rangers, whom he left with less than amicable terms after failing to reach an agreement with Glen Sather. The notorious agitator recently signed a 4-year, $15.5m deal with the Stars, making him the fifth-highest paid Dallas forward, behind Brad Richards ($7.8m), Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow ($4.1m) and Jere Lehtinen ($4m). The Rangers were unwilling to go anywhere the $3.5m number Avery was asking for, and after he called the Rangers’ bluff and got his money, he wasted no time in taking a shot at his former team. Whether the Stars are better than the Rangers is up in the air, but for Avery, I’m willing to bet he thinks whichever team pays him the most is the best team in the league. The Stars no doubt could’ve used his physical play against Detroit, but I’m not quite sure he’s the difference-maker he’s anointed himself to be. One thing’s for sure though, Avery’s not going to shut up. The Rangers and Stars meet up in MSG October 20th, then again on February 6th in Dallas.

Hejduk Talks Retirement

Jes Golbez reports that Avalanche forward Milan Hejduk has made it known in his native Czech Republic that he plans to retire after his current contract expires. The forward, a long-time linemate of Joe Sakic’s, will be only 34 when his contract ends, still a very reasonable age to continue playing, but Hejduk cites his injuries as the biggest stumbling block. The forward has apparently not been skating at all over the summer, because due to a bum knee he can’t run or jump. Hejduk has opted not to undergo major knee surgery, because it would mean he would have to miss an entire season for rehab. Hejduk was drafted by the Nordiques in 1994 and has spent his entire career in the Quebec/Colorado organization. He is 5 goals shy of 300 and 2 points shy of 600 in his career. He has never failed to score at least 20 goals a season since his rookie year, including a career high 50 in 2003. It is very likely that Sakic and Hejduk’s retirement will coincide within a span of 2 years, meaning that the Avs will have big holes to fill on the top line should Paul Stastny and either Wojtek Wolski or Marek Svatos fail to fill the void.

Gaborik Draws Interest, Parrish Staying in Northwest?

Eklund at www.hockeybuzz.com reports that Minnesota forward Marian Gaborik is drawing strong interest from teams, especially the Pens, Sabres, and Sens. I don’t know what Doug Risebrough is thinking, but unless he wants to completely write off the season, he would not do this trade. Of course, that also depends on what he gets in return, but we’ve seen too many trades that try to match quantity with quality, and we know how well that turns out. Gaborik has been the centrepiece of the Wild offense for years, despite the fact that he finds himself on the injured list quite a bit. The Pens, Sabres, and Sens are the teams that are rumoured to be heavily bidding for his services, but I would think that 27 other teams are as well. Rumours happen when GMs start kicking tires, and that happens daily because it’s their job. When healthy, Gaborik’s offensive instincts are at least top 15 in the league. I’m quite sure that every single team would love to add him to their forward corps, and yes, that includes the Bolts’ logjam up front. I don’t think Gaborik’s going to move, but seeing as how Risebrough had some difficulty signing Pierre-Marc Bouchard and losing Pavol Demitra, Gaborik’s friend, to free agency, I would not be surprised if Gaborik follows in the footsteps of Demitra. And of course, if he does, Vancouver will be a heavily rumoured destination. Risebrough will have to evaluate the situation and make a decision come February, at the trade deadline.

Mark Parrish is also another player drawing interest. The former first round pick was signed by the Wild to a very lucrative offer, but has seen his play steadily declined until he was a healthy scratch on some nights. He was in late July and no teams have bit, effectively making him an UFA. A couple of destinations mentioned in the article include Vancouver, Edmonton, and Long Island, although I think the Islanders are out of the question. The Islanders stated that they did not re-sign their veterans because they were heading towards a full-on youth movement. Doug Weight was not a testament to that, but he does bring veteran savvy and should be a good mentor to the kids. However, I don’t think Garth Snow is interested in reclamation projects like Parrish. If he does sign Parrish I think it’s a mistake, because for the Islanders the future is in their pipeline, and they’d be wasting valuable time and money in the hopes of getting Parrish back to his scoring form. Vancouver and Edmonton are potential destinations, as both teams could use some offensive depth, but so can the Avalanche, who are still patiently awaiting Joe Sakic’s decision. So far only division rivals of the Wild have been rumoured to be interested in Parrish, but probably because these teams are the ones that have been able to take a good, long look at Parrish. These teams know what he can do, but taking a flyer on the winger is another matter.

Clowe Inks Deal

It hasn’t been made official yet, but Ryane Clowe has inked a deal which would pay him $1.6m next season, according to NHLPA.com. The 6′2″, 225 lb winger’s season was cut short last year after tearing a ligament in his knee, but returned just in time for the playoffs and recorded a very respectable 9 points (5 goals) in 13 games. The Sharks will be counting on Clowe quite a bit next season, most likely playing alongside a hopefully rejuvenated Patrick Marleau. The Sharks are coming off yet another disappointing playoff appearance, but the players pleaded to Doug Wilson to not make any sweeping changes to the current roster, and will be hungry come October. Along with Milan Michalek, the Sharks will be counting on the two young wingers to provide some passing options for Joe Thornton.

The forwards remain largely unchanged, but on defense the Sharks got much more experienced, and arguably better, with the addition of Rob Blake and Dan Boyle. The Sharks are an early favourite to win the Pacific Division title, but that will clearly hold backseat to winning the Cup. You have to really wonder if the Sharks will face sweeping changes both in the front office and roster should they make another early playoff exit.

Sens Avoid Hearing, Tambellini Hired

Antoine Vermette has avoided a potential nasty arbitration with the Sens, agreeing on a two-year deal worth $5.525m, a cap hit of roughly $2.76m/year. Vermette conceded a lot in this one, because 1) he signed a multi-year contract, 2) he got less than what he would’ve gotten at the hearing, and 3) he’s still not protected from potential trades. Bryan Murray wanted to keep Vermette for cheap, and he did just that. Vermette has a lot of potential as a second-line player, after registering 50+ points last year. Along with Mike Fisher and Chris Neil, he’ll provide a lot of much-needed depth to the Sens. However, this doesn’t mean that Vermette isn’t on the move, but I think trading him away would be a mistake considering his relatively low salary. I’m not sure why Vermette didn’t go through with the hearing, I think he would’ve most definitely been awarded at least $3m/year, but I think it does mean that he remains optimistic that he’ll stay a Senator and did not want a potentially ugly hearing change that.

The Canucks have gone through a bunch of front office changes this summer, and out of nowhere the Oilers hired Steve Tambellini, formerly assistant GM of the Canucks, to take over Kevin Lowe, who will be moving even hire up in the ladder. Tambellini worked under both Dave Nonis and Brian Burke, but I hardly think he is from the same mold. Lowe had previously worked with Tambellini, their biggest success coming from the 2002 Canadian Olympic team in Salt Lake, and no, I don’t think this is a shot at Burke or anyone else. Tambellini is very well-respected within hockey circles and it’s a great move for the Oilers moving ahead. Now the Canucks will have to name a new assistant GM, and my guess is that it could be Scott Mellanby, a former client of Mike Gillis, who was hired earlier this summer as a consultant.

The Sundin Factor

I was shocked today when I opened up TSN’s front page that there wasn’t something about Mats Sundin… so here’s your daily dose.

Sundin still is the biggest fish on the market. After it was clear that Sundin would not be re-signing with Toronto before July 1st, and that Toronto had no plans to bring the veteran captain back moving ahead, there were reportedly as many as 10 teams bidding for his services. Suddenly, Mike Gillis came along and blew everyone away with a $20m offer, but it wasn’t enough, as Sundin refused to take the bait and decided to ponder over his decision until sometime in August. As of now, there are only three possible immediate destinations for Sundin - there are a couple of teams that have notified Sundin that should he sign with them they would be willing to make cap room to accommodate him. But should he retire, what happens next?

For Vancouver, it means they head into next season with Pavol Demitra as their second line centre, who is admittedly not a strong face-off man and is much more effective on the wing. Kyle Wellwood has the ability to play a minor scoring role, but he’s very much undersized in the West and has a lot of work to do before he is in NHL shape. When Gillis offered Sundin the contract, he was putting all his eggs in one basket - he had hoped that with Sundin aboard he would be able to re-sign Markus Naslund at a discount and as an incentive for other potential free agents to sign with Vancouver. Naslund signed with the Rangers after he decided to not wait any longer, and hometown boy Brendan Morrison has re-joined Brian Burke and Dave Nonis in Anaheim. Gillis preached an offense-first team from the get-go, but this team is hardly any more dangerous offensively than last year’s squad. The biggest addition is Demitra, but he does not replace Naslund and Morrison’s combined production, and every Canuck fan is hoping that Steve Bernier or Mason Raymond can provide consistent scoring. At the moment the Canucks are merely playoff contenders, barring another miracle season from Roberto Luongo. Should Sundin sign with them, they’ll be in the thick of the race, but I hardly think a Cup is headed there.

Montreal doesn’t need Sundin. I’m sure that Tomas Plekanec is secretly hoping that Sundin signs elsewhere, or retires, otherwise the slick centre would have to play third-line minutes. They’ve made their big offensive addition in Alex Tanguay, and with all the young talent (the Kostitsyns, Maxim Lapierre) I hardly think they need another scoring talent. Of course, they would benefit if Sundin does sign with them, but I’m not so sure he puts them over the top - I still think their biggest question mark lies in goaltending, and you can’t get anywhere in the playoffs without sublime goaltending. Their division isn’t as tough as it was anymore, and with Ottawa, Toronto, and Buffalo sliding, there’s not too much in terms of divisional rivalry. Montreal is an early lock for the division title, and I think they’re better off without Sundin and the cap problems and restraints his signing would bring forth.

Toronto made it clear they weren’t going to give into Sundin’s salary demands, and I think they’re better off in the long run without him. For Toronto it’s a time to re-build, and Luke Schenn was a nice place to start, although there is no immediate answer to gaping hole at centre left by Sundin. Sundin doesn’t need the Leafs, and admittedly they are the worst option of the three, with uncertainty heading into training camp, specifically the Bryan McCabe debacle. The Leafs are moving forward, and Sundin isn’t part of their plan, which is to be expected, considering Sundin is considered to be at the late stages of his career, but poor management had left the Leafs cupboard bare and the road back to respectability is going to be a bumpy one. They have a long way to go, and re-signing Sundin is not a step in the right direction.

Bouwmeester Stays For Now

To the surprise of no one really, Jay Bouwmeester has signed a one-year extension with the Panthers. However, I find it rather odd that Bouwmeester is only going to earn $4.8m next year. $4.8m is not much, and I’m sure he could’ve gotten more from the arbitrator, but for some reason he took less to stay just another year in Florida. Why? I think it’s because he knows he can cash in big time next summer. He inked an extension before his arbitration hearing set for Tuesday, avoiding more potential friction between him and management. This move also means that it is very, very likely Bouwmeester will not be in a Panther uniform in 2009, as I don’t believe the Panthers are dumb enough to let him walk without getting anything in return.

The Flyers were reportedly hot on Bouwmeester’s tail after it was reported that Bouwmeester had rejected the Panthers’ long-term offer, but the Panthers chose to wait and see how the season develops before deciding what to do with Bouwmeester. Panthers can rest assured that Bouwmeester is there to play every night, but merely to raise his stock come the deadline or free agency.

Bouwmeester Rejects

The Panthers haven’t tasted success since 1996 when they reached the finals, and drafting Jay Bouwmeester in 2002 was supposed to change all of that. The Panthers have been fortunate enough to have very talented players play for them, but they’ve never been able to quite keep them together. And the biggest reason why? They can’t win. For some reason, despite being in the weakest division in hockey, they have not finished higher than 3rd since last making the playoffs in 2000 (they were swept by the Devils in the first round). The finished 3rd in their division last year, but 4th for 5 straight years before that - you could say they’re consistent, but I don’t think it’s the type of consistency owners Alan Cohen and Bernie Kosar wanted.

The Miami Herald has reported that Bouwmeester very recently rejected a multi-year offer from the Panthers, and were willing to pay him as much as $6m/year. It’s good money, but given Bouwmeester’s talents he could fetch much more on the free agent market, although I hardly think that’s the main motivator. Instead, Bouwmeester will go through with the arbitration hearing, sign a one-year contract, and then be the subject of trade rumours all season long. Bouwmeester’s clearly frustrated by the lack of progress and direction this team is taking, after trading away Roberto Luongo and then adding Tomas Vokoun, then trading away Olli Jokinen but only adding Cory Stillman up front. Both are downgrades, leaving Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton to shoulder the offensive load - and it’s not something to be proud of. No one wants to play for a loser, and Bouwmeester’s no different.

The only way the Panthers can convince Bouwmeester to stay is if they can reach the playoffs, but it’s an outside shot at best. Their lack of a 1st round pick this year hurt, but Keaton Ellerby and Michael Frolik have progressed nicely. Bouwmeester’s been under Jokinen and Luongo’s shadows, and perhaps he’s been a little complacent in a sidekick role, but I truly believe he has the talent to be the league’s best. His departure would set the Panthers another huge step back, and that’s something I don’t think the NHL or the Panthers need. Should he depart via trade, I imagine the Panthers’ brass would say something along the lines of getting “fair” returns, but that’s what they said when they dealt Jokinen too.

Your Call

The free agent month is drawing to a slow close, and all that remains of real intrigue is August 1, when Mats Sundin will address the media about his future. Most teams have their roster more or less set already, while some teams still have some work to do.

I haven’t been at HockeyAnalysis for long, but I think I’ve really gotten the hang of this WordPress program and finally got the links to work. I’ve really enjoyed my time here thus far, David’s been of great help and we’ve got a lot of intelligent bloggers and readers here. However, I’ve noticed that in my posts, especially on slow news days, I’ve blogged on a variety of things, and some of them have nothing to do with rumours. Since you, the readers, are the ones that keep this site going and the bloggers blogging, you make us accountable, I think you guys should have some input about what goes on in this blog. So, that being said, what would guys like to see? More focus on rumours, the cap, Gary Bettman’s incompetence, or analyses? Any questions and comments are welcome, negative or positive.

But, of course, a post on this blog wouldn’t be a post without a rumour, would it? Antoine Vermette, one of the Sens’ two prized RFAs, could very well be shipped out to Vancouver by the end of the month. Vermette and the Sens have been negotiating a deal for some time, and it’s believed that the young forward is seeking $2.5-3m/year. The Sens are looking to bolster their blueline, and the rumour is that either Sami Salo or Kevin Bieksa is going the other way, depending on which one is willing to waive their no-trade clause. Should Vermette be dealt, it is very likely that Andrej Meszaros will stay, as I don’t think the Sens are too keen on losing two big chunks of their young core.

Sundin Saga

TSN reported earlier this morning that Mats Sundin had agreed to sign with the Canucks, but it was later reported that he has not put the pen to the paper and that the report is simply false. Claes Elefalk, Sundin’s Swedish reporesentative, and JP Barry, his agent, have both denied the report, and claimed that they have been misquoted by Swedish journalist Dusan Umicevic.

This whole Sundin saga is rather interesting. Being a huge Canucks fan, I’ve followed this to a tee. Just a couple days ago on a local sports radio, TEAM 1040, Mike Gillis confirmed that he is still heavily pursuing Sundin, with the Leafs and Canadiens still very much interested. Gillis said that one of his major selling points to Sundin was the fact that come 2010, he would be captaining Team Sweden in front of his home crowd. Not only that, he would be able to have some sort of continuity from the NHL to Olympic game, considering that a handful of Canuck players are locks for the Swedish team. A couple of people have said that this is a great point and that Sundin should take this possibility into consideration. I, however, think it’s Gillis sounding desperate and grasping at straws. If his major selling point is the chance for Sundin to play in front of his “home crowd” while building an early camaraderie with his Swedish Canuck teammates, and not by boasting that perhaps Gillis has the best goalie in the league, then something is really wrong.

First, it’s fairly obvious that money is not the major motivator for Sundin, despite him (indirectly) saying that he won’t go to the team that offers anything less than $7m. The Canucks blew everyone out of the water by offering $20m, and Gillis probably thought Sundin would come aboard right away. The plan backfired after Sundin refused to bite, and more or less handcuffed the Canucks in their free agent negotiations. Fortunately for them, Pavol Demitra had already verbally agreed to sign with them, showing that perhaps this summer wasn’t totally a flop. I’m not sure what Sundin is thinking right now, but if winning the Cup is the biggest motivator then he should’ve by now signed with the Habs, and he hasn’t.

Second, Gillis is making promises he has no control over. No matter where Sundin goes, should he continue to be playing come 2010, he would be captain anyway (I think Niklas Lidstrom’s a better choice, but that’s another story). So the first part of his Olympic selling point is moot. The second part, in which Gillis says that Sundin would be able to play in front of his “home crowd” and build-up a camaraderie with his Swedish teammates, is moot as well. Sundin’s “home crowd” will always be in Sweden, and if his tenure in Vancouver flops a la Mark Messier, he will be hearing a chorus of boos regardless. His Swedish teammates, namely Henrik and Daniel Sedin, are not guaranteed to be Canucks after the 2009 season either. Both players are set to become free agents, and should the team face another disappointing season or playoff showing, it is very possible that the two will be leaving. Markus Naslund, one of Sweden’s best ever, has already left. Sundin already has a gold medal from Torino, but no Cup. If I were him, I’d be going for something I don’t have.

Third, Vancouver must be a very unattractive city to play in. We’ve already been spurned before by hometown heroes Joe Sakic and Paul Kariya, but for understandable reasons. Here we are, offering $20m, more than any other team, and Sundin’s still hesitating. Vancouver is obviously not a Cup contender, but it’s not like we’re the Kings or Thrashers either. We have an elite goalie, perhaps the best ever to suit up for the Canucks, a solid defense, and some respectable forwards. Vancouver is the most travel-heavy team, and perhaps that’s why Sundin doesn’t want to sign, but who really knows? The city (and the team) is notorious for being unable to attract high-end free agents, despite the city has been voted as one of the best places in the world.

EDIT: Apparently the news was broken by a very respectable Swedish newspaper called the Dagen Nyheter. It’s one of the two Swedish morning newspaper publications, and is unlikely to report something that doesn’t have some proof or evidence to it. It’s also interesting to note that Jaromir Jagr and Martin Straka’s signings were all first reported by European news sources, only to be denied by their respective agents.