The Sundin Factor
July 28th, 2008 by Jason ChenI was shocked today when I opened up TSN’s front page that there wasn’t something about Mats Sundin… so here’s your daily dose.
Sundin still is the biggest fish on the market. After it was clear that Sundin would not be re-signing with Toronto before July 1st, and that Toronto had no plans to bring the veteran captain back moving ahead, there were reportedly as many as 10 teams bidding for his services. Suddenly, Mike Gillis came along and blew everyone away with a $20m offer, but it wasn’t enough, as Sundin refused to take the bait and decided to ponder over his decision until sometime in August. As of now, there are only three possible immediate destinations for Sundin - there are a couple of teams that have notified Sundin that should he sign with them they would be willing to make cap room to accommodate him. But should he retire, what happens next?
For Vancouver, it means they head into next season with Pavol Demitra as their second line centre, who is admittedly not a strong face-off man and is much more effective on the wing. Kyle Wellwood has the ability to play a minor scoring role, but he’s very much undersized in the West and has a lot of work to do before he is in NHL shape. When Gillis offered Sundin the contract, he was putting all his eggs in one basket - he had hoped that with Sundin aboard he would be able to re-sign Markus Naslund at a discount and as an incentive for other potential free agents to sign with Vancouver. Naslund signed with the Rangers after he decided to not wait any longer, and hometown boy Brendan Morrison has re-joined Brian Burke and Dave Nonis in Anaheim. Gillis preached an offense-first team from the get-go, but this team is hardly any more dangerous offensively than last year’s squad. The biggest addition is Demitra, but he does not replace Naslund and Morrison’s combined production, and every Canuck fan is hoping that Steve Bernier or Mason Raymond can provide consistent scoring. At the moment the Canucks are merely playoff contenders, barring another miracle season from Roberto Luongo. Should Sundin sign with them, they’ll be in the thick of the race, but I hardly think a Cup is headed there.
Montreal doesn’t need Sundin. I’m sure that Tomas Plekanec is secretly hoping that Sundin signs elsewhere, or retires, otherwise the slick centre would have to play third-line minutes. They’ve made their big offensive addition in Alex Tanguay, and with all the young talent (the Kostitsyns, Maxim Lapierre) I hardly think they need another scoring talent. Of course, they would benefit if Sundin does sign with them, but I’m not so sure he puts them over the top - I still think their biggest question mark lies in goaltending, and you can’t get anywhere in the playoffs without sublime goaltending. Their division isn’t as tough as it was anymore, and with Ottawa, Toronto, and Buffalo sliding, there’s not too much in terms of divisional rivalry. Montreal is an early lock for the division title, and I think they’re better off without Sundin and the cap problems and restraints his signing would bring forth.
Toronto made it clear they weren’t going to give into Sundin’s salary demands, and I think they’re better off in the long run without him. For Toronto it’s a time to re-build, and Luke Schenn was a nice place to start, although there is no immediate answer to gaping hole at centre left by Sundin. Sundin doesn’t need the Leafs, and admittedly they are the worst option of the three, with uncertainty heading into training camp, specifically the Bryan McCabe debacle. The Leafs are moving forward, and Sundin isn’t part of their plan, which is to be expected, considering Sundin is considered to be at the late stages of his career, but poor management had left the Leafs cupboard bare and the road back to respectability is going to be a bumpy one. They have a long way to go, and re-signing Sundin is not a step in the right direction.
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11 Responses to “The Sundin Factor”
By Jordy on Jul 28, 2008
What is anyones take on the Canucks depth of youth-talent? Looking at their roster I am wondering if a line could be cobbled from either Shannon as center with Hansen or someone else on the wing?
At some point I figure that the Canucks are going to have to stop relying on free agency and deadline trades to get good and start molding players. I think if you look at most of Vancouver’s recent top talents, they have all been brought up in house (Edler, Naslund, Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, Ohlund, Bieksa) with obvious exceptions of course (Lu and a host of others).
By Marco on Jul 29, 2008
Sedin-Sedin-Demitra/Bernier
Pyatt-Wellwood-Demitra/Bernier
My best guess at a top 6. Kesler SHOULD be 2nd line centre, but you know Wellwood can’t play a checking line role.
By Jordy on Jul 29, 2008
But Johnson probably CAN…
How about:
Sedin-Sedin-Bernier
Raymond/Pyatt-Kesler-Demitra
Burrows-Johnson-Pettinger
Cowan/Hordichuk-Shannon/Krog-Wellwood/Brown
I’m still curious where the youth would fit into all this. Also, from what I’ve heard, Krog is on a one way contract, no? He’d have to go into the mix somehow wouldn’t he?
By Jason C on Jul 29, 2008
Jordy, the Canucks aren’t a very deep team. After the Sedins, and perhaps Demitra, the offensive talent seems to dive right off. There are a couple of young players that can chip in here and there, but nothing to boast about. It’s true that the Canucks have brought up their fair share of players, but unfortunately none of them have been the superstars or elite talents the organization has hoped them to be. Bure was the closest they’ve ever got, and that didn’t turn out so well. Linden was fantastic, but again, his offensive skill was limited. The Canucks have had a spotty record at drafting, which explains why their cupboard is bare. Nonis once said that you cannot build a team via free agency, and it’s true - but you have to draft well first. When Hodgson becomes a NHL regular it’ll mark a new chapter in Canucks hockey.
If Vigneault wanted an absolute shutdown line, it’d be Burrows/Hordichuk-Johnson-Kesler. Unfortunately, if Kesler and Johnson are on the same line it’d be a waste of their face-off abilities, something the Canucks have been awful in. Krog is on a one-way contract, but he’s a player that has failed to translate his tremendous success in the AHL to the NHL. He had trouble cracking an Atlanta lineup that was shallow down the middle.
Marco, I don’t think Kesler should be a second line centre, although he will be getting second line minutes. The problem with Kesler is that he has limited offensive ability, and putting him in a scoring role might get him away from doing what he does best. I don’t disagree with your top line, but I think Wellwood has a ways to go before he is NHL ready. Raymond might get a crack at the second line, provided he can take the 82-game schedule.
By Jordy on Jul 29, 2008
Jason, Most organizations do not draft superstar after superstar as far as I know. I’d say most teams have two biggies that they bring up and with the Sedins, I’d say the Nucks are no different. It’s not often you get 2 ‘top 30′ players in one draft, though you can get elite player after elite player if your team is god-awful.
Aside from that, I’d say the Canucks have been drafting decently in years past when I look at who has come up. I’m not a hockey-junkie unless it is the Canucks but don’t see too many teams besides the Wings that can boast a draft-to-superstar machine.
I wonder if in a couple of years the Canucks youth like Kesler, Burrows, Raymond and Shannon will start putting up good numbers. I figure the Sedins plus ’several’ players that can put in 50-60 points could make a really solid team if they keep the defense. I’m not cheering for a return to the run and gun days of the WCE…it was great hockey to watch but never took the Nucks far.
By Marco on Jul 30, 2008
Thats fair Jason. I just think he’s one ofthere best draft picks in a while, they should give him a real shot at seeing what he can do, if he can’t put up better numbers with more minutes then he’s a mainstay on the 3rd line at centre.
For Wellwood, what do you think they should do with him? I can’t think of a spot to put him other then 2nd line centre because he’ll die on any other line. I also don’t know how he’ll handle the West.
We’ll see. Also Parrish might be a guy they could have interest in.
By Jason C on Jul 31, 2008
Jordy, no organization drafts superstar after superstar because it’s impossible. The Pens and Caps stunk for a long time, and after a string of top 5 picks they’re where they wanted to be. Detroit got really lucky with Datsyuk and Zetterberg, although credit to Andersson for finding them. A really good way, I think, to evaluate how a team drafts is by taking a look at who they take in the first round. Vancouver’s first round picks are spotty at best, and over the past 2-3 years they’ve been notorious for “going off the board.” Grabner has been battling inconsistency problems and White is coming off a so-so freshmen year.
This is just me, personally, but I don’t feel the Sedins are legitimate number one line players. They can’t take over a game like elite players do, despite their impressive point totals. Also another point is that they cannot play without one another. Based on individual talent alone, they’re good, but it’s only when they’re together they become dangerous. This causes problems when Vigneault is juggling lines. It doesn’t allow flexibility on the top two lines. For whatever reason, they also refuse to or are unable to play any other offensive system other than the cycle. Some teams have caught on, and it’s just not an effective system if you don’t have a shooter, and I don’t think Bernier or Pyatt’s the proper solution. I’m banking on Hodgson marking a new chapter.
Marco, I don’t know what they should do with Wellwood. He does have the ability to score in bunches, but it’s all up to him. If he doesn’t show the dedication to get in shape or skate hard, then it’s highly possible that he could be waived or traded. I don’t think there’s room on this roster for out of shape speedsters such as him. I think Raymond, Hansen, or Shannon can do an equally good or better job. Parrish is an interesting guy to keep an eye on, and he could be a reasonable investment at the right price, although I don’t think the Canucks are going to make a move until Sundin makes his decision.
By thewordbird on Aug 1, 2008
I think that banking on Hodgson as a Canuck fan should, is a good move.
Cody Hodgson is a solid leadership and ‘heads-to-hands’ type player. If he does not produce right away, I would not fret. He will come and his presence is going to effect games in ways that most players cannot. Everyone from his head coach (Stan Butler) to the coaches in the OHL think so and I’ve heard from Butler’s mouth some very impressive things. Scouting reports place only his acceleration behind Steven Stamkos and not much else….
In fairness, the Sedins have not much of any time apart. As a twin myself, there are chemistry intangibles that just do not show up on a a scoresheet and coaches wrok with players forver to get two or three guys to that point. It is a gift and to not use it would be rather silly.
I think that Kyle Wellwood should be alotted a centre position and the second line seems to work well for both him and the organization. Plenty of powerplay opportunities would likely allow him a lot to increase a wavering confidence.
Problem is, if the Canucks would have given Morrison the respect he deserves, he could easily have filled that role and I believe that they are banking far too heavily on a Sundin signing that does not seem to be a lock.
I really like the Bernier signing and on my club-he is a first liner (or rather I would have approached Ryane Clowe as well!). I know that Ryan Kesler’s chemistry with Burrows is highlighted everywhere, but I think he has room to grow over that and a capable first line centre in my mind. Two-way play is under-rated. YEs, ideally he occupies a third line centre, 2nd PP, 1st/2nd PK minutes, but the organization needs him and he is maturing quite well.
Mason Raymond is a good role model for kids and a solid team guy and will progress further-doing a decent job of filling the net. Do not place too many expectations on him. Raymond will grow into his minutes and I like your point Jason of his durability. It will be interesting. My first line is comprised of RAYMOND/KESLER/BERNIER with the Sedins skating with Demitra.
Hodgson and Sundin can of course alleviate this stretching out of talent.
By Jason C on Aug 1, 2008
The Sedins’ greatest strength is their chemistry, but it’s also their greatest weakness. Shut down one of them, and you effectively shut down the other too. Their chemistry with one another is unrivaled in the league, but the Sedins themselves and the Canucks bank on that chemistry to win games. Unfortunately, sometimes the chemistry just isn’t there on some nights.
I agree on the point about Morrison, if the Canucks were to keep either him or Naslund, Morrison would be my choice. Like I said, a lot of Wellwood’s success depends on him - he really needs to get in shape and show a willingness to better himself as a hockey player. The Leafs deemed him expendable because they felt he wasn’t going anywhere but down with his current work ethic.
Bernier is a couple years away from being legitimate first-line material, but he is a nice addition. He has more offensive upside than Pyatt, which is good, and a natural right winger, which is great.
I am very much looking forward to watching Raymond this year, I think he’s a dynamic offensive forward with great speed, and would be a terrific scorer if only his hands could catch up to his feet. We’ll have to see what Kesler does this season to see if he deserves a more offensive role, but I like him where he is now, and if the scoring comes naturally then he will be our new second line centre, but I would not force him into a situation in which he is counted on to score goals and shut down the opposition. It’s one or the other for Kesler.
By Yano L on Aug 11, 2008
The way I see it, Kesler is Van best 2 way forward so he’ll be pivoting the third line. If Pyatt/Bernier and Wellwood are part of your “top 6 forwards”, then Vancouver is in serious trouble.
Poor Luongo, was he not told that he was coming to a better team? But again, everything will rest on his shoulders. A healthier D will help but a struggling offence will be Van’s downfall.
Sundin won’t sign. Too much travel and Van is no where near being considered a contender. Montreal is the logical choice. Don’t worry about Plekanec, he’ll be fine. He will still center Kovalev/Kostitsyn. I don’t see Kovy playing with Sundin. Sundin would play with Tanguay and Higgins/Latendresse(if he picks up his game, remember…only 21 years old.)The challenge will be telling Koivu to center the third line. On paper, it would be great. Koivu is a good 2 way forward and I think less even strentgh minutes will be good for him. It’s a logical fit as Montreal will have options contract wise at the end of the year. Kovalev, Tanguay and Koivu will all be UFA’s. So they could try to win it all this year and they wouldn’t be mortgaging the future.
By Jason C on Aug 11, 2008
Yano, Kesler should be pivoting the third line, I agree, but he will be getting second line minutes being on the 1st PK unit and perhaps seeing some spot duty on the PP. Vancouver has been in serious trouble for a long time. First with the WCE it was goaltending, now that we have goaltending offense is our main concern. Burke, Nonis, and Gillis have yet to address this problem, although they did have Carter for a year. Vancouver’s offensive woes have been glaring for quite some time. It’s not news anymore.
I don’t think Sundin will sign with the Canucks either. If he really wants to win the Cup, Montreal is clearly the best option. He’s made it clear that money is not the major motivator, otherwise he would’ve jumped at the Vancouver deal. I like Montreal’s duo of Plekanec and Koivu down the middle, and should Sundin sign one of them would be reduced to around 15 minutes a game, which would be a shame really. According to nhlnumbers.com the Habs have only $6m in cap space, not including the money they will set aside for a bonus cushion, and rumour has it that they are offering $8m for Sundin. Should he sign, they’ll have to shed some salary, and come the trade deadline if they don’t have enough cap space it would be difficult to add some key veteran players for the playoff run. I can see Carbonneau perhaps dealing for a veteran goalie to compliment youngsters Price and Halak.